Michael Blake, managing director at Last Mile Asset Management, looks at the Climate Change Committee’s Fourth Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk, exploring where utility network design and management play a role in climate adaptation.
The foundational motivation to reach net zero by 2050 is to curb the worst effects of climate change. But the truth is that we are today living with a changing climate, and in the future the UK is expected to experience hotter and drier summers, warmer and wetter winters. UK infrastructure wasn’t built with that climate in mind, and as weather extremes increase – be it more flooding or heatwaves – it’s vital that our built environment and utilities infrastructure adapt.
The Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) Fourth Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk has recently emphasised this need for adaptation, along with recommendations to the government. The CCC estimates that building a well-adapted UK will require investment of around £11bn per year, but that the cost of inaction could be significantly higher with estimates between 1-5% of UK GDP by 2050 – which is somewhere between £60-260 billion per year.
Now is the time for solutions. The good news is that many are available to deploy today. From ambient heat networks capable of keeping homes cool as well as warm, to smart water metering that can help reduce demand – the infrastructure sector is already delivering for the needs of tomorrow.
Tackling heatwaves with home cooling
The Climate Change Committee warns that overheating will become a major health risk, and forecasts that 92% of existing homes are at risk of experiencing overheating by 2050. Its recommendations emphasise prioritising passive cooling, such as shading, ventilation and insulation, with low-carbon active cooling used where passive measures alone are insufficient.
For existing homes, a range of active cooling options will be needed, with the right solution depending on the property. As the UK’s ongoing transition away from gas heating gathers pace, air conditioning may be appropriate where boiler replacement is not practical, while air source heat pumps can offer a dual-purpose heat and cooling option where gas boilers are being upgraded. Hybrid boiler-heat pump systems may also have a role, provided the system can deliver the active cooling needed.
However, new homes shouldn’t simply copy retrofit strategies. For new developments, there is a better option.
Fifth-generation ambient heat networks are better suited to new developments, connecting neighbourhoods of heat pumps through shared ambient-temperature ground loops and delivering both heating and cooling more efficiently than individual systems. Because these systems rely on stable underground temperatures, they can be significantly more efficient than using individual air source heat pumps. For developers, that creates an opportunity to build climate-resilient housing that will help protect residents in the future, while meeting low-carbon heat regulations – such as the Future Homes Standard.
Reinforcing neighbourhoods and accelerating grid connections
The overall electrification of heat does raise wider implications for the electricity grid. Networks built 20 years ago weren’t designed for neighbourhoods of retrofitted air source heat pumps, so network operators will need to gather data on their older assets, compare actual consumption with design assumptions, and reinforce them before capacity constraints become an issue. On new sites, that load can be factored in from the outset, with capacity designed for the demands of the future rather than today, while fifth-generation heat networks can counterbalance some of the increase.
Accelerating grid connections is in many ways a climate adaptation issue, too. As more of the economy electrifies, the UK’s biggest challenge is increasingly one of grid connections. But projects can only contribute to a more climate-resilient future if they can be connected to the grid quickly and efficiently. A more flexible approach to design standards and supply chains, along with solutions such as microgrids, can help unlock capacity and reduce connection delays.
This is especially important in areas where demand for low-carbon and climate adaptation solutions is growing fastest but the electricity network is already under pressure. The quicker we can electrify homes, heating and transport, the faster we can replace high-carbon technologies and limit further warming.
Water management and flood risk
The report’s water projections note a potential five billion litre per day shortfall in England by 2050, with similar risks across the rest of the UK. The committee’s goal – of having a water supply resilient to a 1-in-500-year drought by 2040 – is demanding, requiring sustained investment in large-scale water storage. But, as the report also notes, efficiency improvements and leakage reduction could meet up to 80% of England’s near-term deficit on their own.
Smart metering is central to that efficiency and leakage agenda. Every water network should be designed with automatic, remotely read meters installed on homes and businesses. These meters can provide timely consumption data to help drive the demand reduction the CCC is calling for. And by comparing consumption at the bulk supply against individual properties, providers can more precisely identify where leakage might be occurring and act fast to prevent it.
A similar principle applies to pumping stations, which need telemetry to operate efficiently, respond quickly to faults, and avoid the kind of service failures that become more costly during periods of drought or flood pressure. At Last Mile all our pumping stations are equipped with telemetry that helps address these issues.
When it comes to flooding, the report is clear that new developments must not increase flood risk, and that sustainable drainage systems are a settlement-scale measure that can help prevent flooding and wastewater systems from being overwhelmed. For developers, the benefit of swales, soakaways, and rain gardens is that they can be less capital intensive than conventional drainage schemes. Furthermore, new developments should be designed using forward looking climate allowances, not historic rainfall patterns. By coordinating water, wastewater, and surface water design into a single process, developers can integrate sustainable drainage from the outset, while also making the most of a site’s layout and available space.
Building resilient networks
Infrastructure systems are interdependent, so a failure in one can rapidly become a failure in several. This is why the CCC’s warning on cascading infrastructure failures is vital, as is its call for the government to find ways to adapt to the risk of knock-on disruption.
To achieve the CCC’s target will require higher levels of cross-sector coordination from all stakeholders as well as a need to design for the whole system, taking interdependencies into account. For example, electricity outages can affect pumping and telemetry, flooding can disrupt substations and access routes, and heatwaves can increase peak electricity demand at the same time as cooling becomes more critical. A multi-utility provider managing electricity, gas, water, and heat networks across the same site has inherent visibility of how those systems interact. That understanding is hard to replicate when separate contractors design and deliver separate utilities, and then separate organisations manage and maintain the assets over the course of their life.
Designing for the future today
The CCC report is a call to action for the government. For the rest of us, whether designing and building infrastructure or searching for the right solution for new developments, the message is clear that decisions we make now – on electrical capacity, heating technology, water metering, and network design – will determine whether the UK’s built environment can adapt to the climate ahead.
Developers and infrastructure providers need not just new technology, but clear design standards, asset-management processes and delivery accountability that lock climate resilience into every stage of development.